This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: revisions to historical temperature data
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:15:20 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
32%
ORYN Consensus
38%
Signal Score
+6.5
Opportunity
5.5
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for San Francisco's high temperature on June 26, 2026, currently reflects a 39.50% probability of the temperature falling between 68-69°F. Historical data and climatological trends suggest this range is plausible but not the most likely outcome.
A warmer-than-average June could push temperatures into the 68-69°F range, especially if high-pressure systems or heatwaves develop. La Niña conditions or persistent offshore winds may contribute to elevated temperatures. The bull case assumes a moderate warming trend with limited marine layer influence.
San Francisco's typical June temperatures often peak in the mid-60s°F due to the marine layer and coastal influences. A strong onshore flow or increased cloud cover could suppress temperatures below the target range. The bear case assumes a cooler-than-average day with persistent fog or stratus.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 31.5% while ORYN AI estimates 38%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
