Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: revisions to historical temperature data
Calibrated 100% · raw 650% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 7:15:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
32%
ORYN Consensus
38%
Signal Score
+6.5
Opportunity
5.5
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r4
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r5
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 650.0¢
Entry: 29-34
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for San Francisco's high temperature on June 26, 2026, currently reflects a 39.50% probability of the temperature falling between 68-69°F. Historical data and climatological trends suggest this range is plausible but not the most likely outcome.
A warmer-than-average June could push temperatures into the 68-69°F range, especially if high-pressure systems or heatwaves develop. La Niña conditions or persistent offshore winds may contribute to elevated temperatures. The bull case assumes a moderate warming trend with limited marine layer influence.
San Francisco's typical June temperatures often peak in the mid-60s°F due to the marine layer and coastal influences. A strong onshore flow or increased cloud cover could suppress temperatures below the target range. The bear case assumes a cooler-than-average day with persistent fog or stratus.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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