This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climatological data revisions post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:56:21 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
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Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market has a 0.45% probability of the highest temperature in New York City on June 27, 2026, falling within the 70-71°F range. Historical climatological data suggests this is an unlikely outcome due to seasonal temperature trends.
Temperatures in late June in NYC typically range between 75-85°F, but a rare cool front or persistent cloud cover could push the high into the 70-71°F range. Unusual weather patterns, such as a delayed seasonal shift or an unexpected storm system, could contribute to this outcome.
Climatological norms for NYC in late June strongly favor temperatures above 71°F, with historical averages around 80°F. The persistence of warm, humid air masses and the urban heat island effect make temperatures below 72°F highly improbable. Data revisions are unlikely to alter this conclusion.
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Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.5% while ORYN AI estimates 0.5%.
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