This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 6:50:53 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
86%
ORYN Consensus
85%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market strongly favors (85.50%) that Munich's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will reach 34°C, reflecting a high confidence in extreme heat conditions for the date. Historical and climatological trends for late June in Munich support elevated temperatures, though localized weather anomalies could disrupt this outcome.
Climate trends indicate Munich experiences increasingly frequent heatwaves, with late June historically recording temperatures ≥34°C in 15-20% of years. Persistent high-pressure systems or heat domes over Central Europe could elevate temperatures beyond typical ranges, aligning with the market's high probability.
Unseasonable cold fronts, persistent cloud cover, or atypical rainfall could suppress temperatures below 34°C. Munich's maritime-influenced climate occasionally mitigates extreme heat, and localized microclimatic effects may reduce peak temperatures despite broader regional warming.
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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 85.5% while ORYN AI estimates 85%.
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