This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after initial resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:00:41 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a low probability (3.15%) that Madrid's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will be 32°C or below, indicating expectations of warmer-than-cooler conditions for that date.
Madrid could experience cooler-than-expected temperatures due to unusual weather patterns, such as an unseasonable cold front or persistent cloud cover, suppressing peak temperatures below 32°C.
Warmer-than-expected conditions could push the highest temperature above 32°C, driven by a heatwave, prolonged drought, or urban heat island effects exacerbating temperatures in the region.
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Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.1% while ORYN AI estimates 3.2%.
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