Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after initial resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:00:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weather Independence: Madrid temperature is independent of listed markets
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated: Movie box office performance (The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated: Predict.fun FDV market performance
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated: US Presidential Elections (2024, 2028) and Republican nomination
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (3.15%) that Madrid's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will be 32°C or below, indicating expectations of warmer-than-cooler conditions for that date.
Madrid could experience cooler-than-expected temperatures due to unusual weather patterns, such as an unseasonable cold front or persistent cloud cover, suppressing peak temperatures below 32°C.
Warmer-than-expected conditions could push the highest temperature above 32°C, driven by a heatwave, prolonged drought, or urban heat island effects exacerbating temperatures in the region.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.