This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revision delays or inaccuracies from Wunderground
AI updated 6/26/2026, 11:15:13 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.6
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a 1.55% probability that the highest temperature in London on June 27, 2026, will reach 34°C, based on historical temperature trends and current weather forecasting models. This low probability reflects the rarity of such extreme temperatures in London during late June.
A bullish outcome could result from an unprecedented heatwave in the UK, driven by climate change-induced temperature spikes or unusual atmospheric conditions like a strong high-pressure system. Persistent southerly winds bringing hot air from continental Europe could also push temperatures to 34°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given London's historical climate data, which rarely records temperatures above 30°C in late June. Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures or persistent cloud cover could suppress temperatures below 34°C. Additionally, any revisions to historical data post-resolution could lower the probability further.
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Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.3% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
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