This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Delayed or revised NOAA data corrections post-resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:15:45 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.6
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates a low probability (2.05%) that Istanbul's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical NOAA data trends for late June. This aligns with typical summer temperature patterns in the region.
A strong high-pressure system over the Balkans could push warm air masses into Istanbul, coupled with clear skies and minimal wind, leading to a peak temperature of 32°C. Unseasonably hot conditions in the broader Eastern Mediterranean could also contribute.
Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence from the Black Sea, or a delayed seasonal warming trend could cap temperatures below 32°C, with a more typical peak around 28-30°C. Regional weather anomalies or early monsoon effects might suppress heat accumulation.
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Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.3% while ORYN AI estimates 2.1%.
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