Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Delayed or revised NOAA data corrections post-resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:15:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.6
Graph Relationships
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Geopolitical Stability (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) affects Global Energy Prices (Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?)
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Regional Weather Patterns (Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 29?) are unrelated to Specific Event Outcomes (Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?, Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?) or Tech Startup Performance (Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?)
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 75.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low probability (2.05%) that Istanbul's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical NOAA data trends for late June. This aligns with typical summer temperature patterns in the region.
A strong high-pressure system over the Balkans could push warm air masses into Istanbul, coupled with clear skies and minimal wind, leading to a peak temperature of 32°C. Unseasonably hot conditions in the broader Eastern Mediterranean could also contribute.
Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence from the Black Sea, or a delayed seasonal warming trend could cap temperatures below 32°C, with a more typical peak around 28-30°C. Regional weather anomalies or early monsoon effects might suppress heat accumulation.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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