Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by the Hong Kong Observatory post-resolution
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:45:44 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
20%
ORYN Consensus
20%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Correlated: Weather patterns in Asia-Pacific region, potentially influencing Hong Kong temperature
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Indirectly related: Global climate trends, possibly impacting temperature extremes
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,350,772
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 17-23
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Hong Kong's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, currently has a 20% probability of reaching 30°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely without significant warming events.
A strong high-pressure system or heatwave could push temperatures to 30°C, especially if influenced by El Niño or urban heat island effects. Late June is typically hot in Hong Kong, with occasional spikes above 30°C in recent years.
The historical average for late June in Hong Kong is around 28-29°C, with 30°C being relatively rare. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or cooler-than-average conditions could keep temperatures below 30°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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