Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate data revisions
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:15:33 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
9%
ORYN Consensus
8%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated: US Presidential Elections (2024, 2028) and Helsinki temperature
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Unrelated: Predict.fun FDV and Helsinki temperature
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correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,091,679
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -100.0¢
Entry: 6-12
—
Resolution
21h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market probability of 9.50% suggests low confidence that Helsinki will reach 26°C on June 29, 2026, reflecting historical climate data and seasonal norms for the region.
A strong high-pressure system over Scandinavia combined with warm air advection from Eastern Europe could push temperatures to 26°C, especially if cloud cover is minimal and winds are favorable. Unseasonably warm conditions in late June are plausible given recent climate trends.
Historical data shows June daily highs in Helsinki rarely exceed 25°C, with typical ranges between 18-23°C. Persistent cloud cover, maritime influence, or late-season cold air intrusions would suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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