Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable weather systems (e.g., sudden heat domes)
Calibrated 100% · raw 125% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 6:00:37 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+1.3
Opportunity
1.2
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic is related to crude oil prices, which in turn might impact global economic trends, but not directly to Amsterdam temperature
correlates · strength 60%
Weather in Amsterdam is unrelated to geopolitical events like Strait of Hormuz traffic or Putin's presidency
correlates · strength 60%
Amsterdam temperature is also unrelated to tech startup metrics like Manifold.love daily active users
correlates · strength 60%
Crude Oil prices might influence global economic trends but have no direct correlation with Amsterdam's temperature
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,718,032
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 125.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 5% probability that Amsterdam's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach 20°C, indicating extremely low confidence in this outcome. Historical climate data for Amsterdam in early July typically shows average highs below 20°C, making this a rare event.
A late heatwave or unusual weather pattern could push temperatures to 20°C or higher. Global climate trends suggest incremental warming, though this is not yet reflected in Amsterdam's historical averages for this date. An early onset of summer-like conditions could also drive this outcome.
Amsterdam's climate in early July rarely exceeds 20°C, with historical averages typically between 18-19°C. The resolution source's precision (whole degrees Celsius) further reduces the likelihood of hitting exactly 20°C. Long-term trends do not support a significant deviation from these norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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