Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Technical disruptions in data feeds (Pyth/CME)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Correlated with Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?: As CL and WTI are related crude oil benchmarks, their prices tend to move together
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?: This is a geopolitical event unrelated to crude oil markets
correlates · strength 60%
Correlated with US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?: A diplomatic meeting could lead to increased oil supply, affecting WTI prices
correlates · strength 60%
Inverse relationship with Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?: If WTI hits $65, it is less likely to hit $140
correlates · strength 60%
Correlated with Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?: Similar to the July meeting, this could impact oil supply and WTI prices
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
6 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $65 in June 2026 shows a low probability (6.65%) of occurrence, reflecting current market sentiment that such a price level is unlikely within the specified timeframe. The resolution criteria are highly specific, relying on 1-minute candle highs or lows, which adds precision but increases the difficulty of achieving the threshold.
A bullish scenario could emerge if geopolitical tensions escalate in oil-producing regions (e.g., Middle East, Russia-Ukraine conflict), supply disruptions occur, or OPEC+ unexpectedly cuts production. Additionally, strong global demand growth, particularly from China or India, could drive prices toward $65. A sustained rally in risk assets or inflationary pressures might also support higher oil prices.
A bearish outcome is more likely given current market conditions, with high global oil inventories, potential demand slowdowns in major economies, and a strong U.S. dollar reducing oil price support. Technical resistance at lower price levels and ongoing energy transition policies (e.g., EV adoption) could cap upward momentum. If OPEC+ increases production or if a recession dampens demand, prices may struggle to reach $65.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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