Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Black swan events (e.g., major supply disruption, cyberattack on critical infrastructure)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 2:03:12 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) price increase may lead to increased demand for oil tankers, potentially affecting Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score and other energy-intensive events
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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) price increase may lead to increased demand for oil tankers, potentially affecting Strait of Hormuz traffic
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WTI Crude Oil (WTI) price increase may lead to increased US energy independence, potentially affecting the US debt ceiling and its potential raise
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Higher oil prices may impact global economic growth, potentially affecting Manifold.love's user acquisition and retention
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Economic Indicator: The performance of Palantir (PLTR) and Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) can be influenced by energy prices, making 'Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 22 above $127?' and 'Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of June 29 2026?' related to WTI crude oil price movements.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $140 in June 2026 is extremely low (0.15%) due to current market fundamentals, historical volatility, and structural constraints. The threshold represents a 50%+ increase from current levels, requiring extraordinary geopolitical or supply shocks.
A sustained supply disruption (e.g., Middle East conflict escalation, OPEC+ quota collapse) or demand surge (e.g., China/EU economic rebound) could push WTI to $140. Geopolitical risks in key producing regions (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) or a rapid decline in U.S. shale production could also trigger this outcome.
Current market dynamics (high U.S. production, OPEC+ production discipline, weak global demand growth) make $140 unlikely. A recession in major economies or accelerated renewable energy adoption could further suppress prices. Structural limits on price spikes (e.g., SPR releases, strategic reserves) also mitigate upside risk.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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