This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: climate_data_revisions
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:52:14 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-99.0
Opportunity
97.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market overwhelmingly predicts (99.5%) that Amsterdam's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will not reach 36°C. Historical data and seasonal trends strongly favor a lower maximum temperature for this date.
A bullish outcome (36°C or higher) could occur if an exceptional heatwave hits the Netherlands, driven by prolonged high-pressure systems, Saharan air masses, or climate anomalies. Such events are rare but possible, as seen in 2019 when Amsterdam recorded 36.3°C.
The bearish outcome (below 36°C) is highly probable due to Amsterdam's maritime climate, which typically limits extreme temperatures. June averages around 20-22°C, with 36°C being a 1-in-100-year event historically.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 99.5% while ORYN AI estimates 0.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
