Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: climate_data_revisions
Calibrated 100% · raw 9900% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:52:14 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-99.0
Opportunity
97.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weather-Technology
correlates · strength 60%
Weather-Entertainment
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -9900.0¢
Entry: 96-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly predicts (99.5%) that Amsterdam's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will not reach 36°C. Historical data and seasonal trends strongly favor a lower maximum temperature for this date.
A bullish outcome (36°C or higher) could occur if an exceptional heatwave hits the Netherlands, driven by prolonged high-pressure systems, Saharan air masses, or climate anomalies. Such events are rare but possible, as seen in 2019 when Amsterdam recorded 36.3°C.
The bearish outcome (below 36°C) is highly probable due to Amsterdam's maritime climate, which typically limits extreme temperatures. June averages around 20-22°C, with 36°C being a 1-in-100-year event historically.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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