Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Injuries or suspensions affecting key players
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:04:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
37%
ORYN Consensus
37%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 34-40
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Senegal" if Senegal win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Iraq". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market favors Iraq (-2.5) over Senegal with a 63.5% implied probability, reflecting skepticism about Senegal's ability to win by 3+ goals in their upcoming FIFA World Cup match. The outcome hinges on Senegal's offensive execution and Iraq's defensive resilience.
Senegal's strong attacking lineup, including Sadio Mané and Ismaila Sarr, could overwhelm Iraq's defense, especially if Iraq struggles with set-piece vulnerabilities or early pressure. Historical World Cup performances suggest Senegal's depth and individual brilliance could secure a 3+ goal margin.
Iraq's disciplined defensive structure and counter-attacking potential may neutralize Senegal's offense, leading to a narrow win or draw. Senegal's inconsistent form in recent matches and Iraq's resilience in high-pressure games reduce the likelihood of a 3+ goal margin.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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