In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Senegal" if Senegal win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Iraq". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Key risk: Injuries or suspensions affecting key players
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:35:13 AM
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Senegal" if Senegal win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Iraq". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd Consensus
37%
ORYN Consensus
37%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market favors Iraq (-2.5) over Senegal with a 63.5% implied probability, reflecting skepticism about Senegal's ability to win by 3+ goals in their upcoming FIFA World Cup match. The outcome hinges on Senegal's offensive execution and Iraq's defensive resilience.
Senegal's strong attacking lineup, including Sadio Mané and Ismaila Sarr, could overwhelm Iraq's defense, especially if Iraq struggles with set-piece vulnerabilities or early pressure. Historical World Cup performances suggest Senegal's depth and individual brilliance could secure a 3+ goal margin.
Iraq's disciplined defensive structure and counter-attacking potential may neutralize Senegal's offense, leading to a narrow win or draw. Senegal's inconsistent form in recent matches and Iraq's resilience in high-pressure games reduce the likelihood of a 3+ goal margin.
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Spread: Senegal (-2.5) is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 36.5% while ORYN AI estimates 36.5%.
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