Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Tracker malfunction (Xtracker.polymarket or X itself)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:09:05 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
CZ's post frequency is related to the success of innovative projects, such as Predict.fun's FDV
correlates · strength 60%
CZ's post frequency is related to the electoral success of individuals who have previously held high-profile political offices, such as Ro Khanna and Nikki Haley
correlates · strength 60%
CZ's post frequency is related to the performance of top-tier NBA teams, such as the Golden State Warriors
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
CZ's post frequency is related to novelty seeking, which is also seen in individuals who are likely to win high-stakes elections
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
25 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times CZ (@cz_binance), posts on X between June 19, 12:00 PM ET and June 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors that CZ will not post 180-199 times on X between June 19-26, 2026, with a near-zero resolution probability. Historical and behavioral patterns suggest such volume is implausible.
CZ could surpass 180 posts if he leverages X for a high-frequency campaign (e.g., daily market updates, AMA threads, or viral content). Unusual personal engagement or Binance-related announcements might drive outliers.
CZ’s posting frequency has historically averaged 10-30 posts weekly, with spikes rarely exceeding 50. A 180+ post week would require an unsustainable volume, likely viewed as spam or algorithmic manipulation.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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