Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_retirement
Calibrated 100% · raw 9945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:45:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
+99.5
Opportunity
98.5
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 9945.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Sakamoto vs. Magadan Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 shows a near-certain outcome with a 0.50% probability, indicating an overwhelming consensus that the total games will meet or exceed 10. The market reflects high confidence in an over outcome due to typical first-set dynamics in Challenger-level tennis.
The bull case assumes a high-scoring first set with aggressive baseline play or serve-and-volley tactics, leading to extended rallies and games. Sakamoto or Magadan, both known for their offensive styles, could produce a set with 10+ games, especially if tiebreaks are involved.
The bear case suggests a tightly contested match with strong serving performances or quick tiebreaks, resulting in fewer than 10 games in the first set. Weather disruptions or early retirements could also skew the outcome toward the under, though these are less likely in Quito's climate.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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