Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: incomplete_set_resolution
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:45:50 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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correlates · strength 60%
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,116,966
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 45.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
5d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Pedro Sakamoto and Alan Magadan in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicting over 10.5 games in the first set of Sakamoto vs. Magadan is highly improbable at 0.50%, reflecting near-certainty of a low-scoring encounter. The 50-50 resolution clause for incomplete sets further suppresses the probability.
Sakamoto and Magadan are both defensive baseliners with low unforced error rates, likely producing a tight first set with minimal games. A matchup favoring service holds and short rallies could result in fewer than 11 games total.
If either player significantly outperforms in service breaks or aggressive playstyle dominates, the first set could exceed 10.5 games. Unforced errors or prolonged rallies would also push the total higher, though this is statistically unlikely given their profiles.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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