Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected early match retirements
Calibrated 100% · raw 2370% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:47:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
75%
ORYN Consensus
99%
Signal Score
+23.7
Opportunity
23.0
Graph Relationships
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Will the longest match at Wimbledon 2026 be 3+ hours long?
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 2370.0¢
Entry: 72-78
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the longest match in the tournament exceeds the listed number of hours. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will use the official match duration (understood as the time between first serve and the final point of the match) as reported by Wimbledon and/or the AELTC to resolve this market. Changeovers, time between points, medical timeouts, and more will all be counted toward the time of the official match. Full suspensions of play (i.e. weather delay, darkness stoppages, or any interruption that causes the umpire to formally suspend the match) will not be counted toward a match’s official duration. If a match is started but not completed for any reason (e.g. abandoned without a result), this market will resolve according to the official matchtime prior to suspension. If the Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled or postponed after July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and Wimbledon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors a 'Yes' resolution, indicating a 98.7% probability that the longest match at Wimbledon 2026 will exceed 3 hours. Historical trends and tournament dynamics strongly support this outcome.
Wimbledon 2026 is expected to feature high-stakes matches with top-tier players, increasing the likelihood of extended, five-set encounters. Past tournaments have frequently seen matches surpass 3 hours, particularly in later rounds, driven by physical endurance and strategic play.
A rare scenario where early rounds feature quick upsets or retirements could limit match durations. Additionally, potential rule changes (e.g., faster play formats) or extreme weather conditions disrupting matches might reduce the probability of long-duration games.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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