This market will resolve to “Yes” if the longest match in the tournament exceeds the listed number of hours. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will use the official match duration (understood as the time between first serve and the final point of the match) as reported by Wimbledon and/or the AELTC to resolve this market. Changeovers, time between points, medical timeouts, and more will all be counted toward the time of the official match. Full suspensions of play (i.e. weather delay, darkness stoppages, or any interruption that causes the umpire to formally suspend the match) will not be counted toward a match’s official duration. If a match is started but not completed for any reason (e.g. abandoned without a result), this market will resolve according to the official matchtime prior to suspension. If the Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled or postponed after July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and Wimbledon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: unexpected early match retirements
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:47:25 PM
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the longest match in the tournament exceeds the listed number of hours. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will use the official match duration (understood as the time between first serve and the final point of the match) as reported by Wimbledon and/or the AELTC to resolve this market. Changeovers, time between points, medical timeouts, and more will all be counted toward the time of the official match. Full suspensions of play (i.e. weather delay, darkness stoppages, or any interruption that causes the umpire to formally suspend the match) will not be counted toward a match’s official duration. If a match is started but not completed for any reason (e.g. abandoned without a result), this market will resolve according to the official matchtime prior to suspension. If the Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled or postponed after July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and Wimbledon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
99%
ORYN Consensus
99%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market overwhelmingly favors a 'Yes' resolution, indicating a 98.7% probability that the longest match at Wimbledon 2026 will exceed 3 hours. Historical trends and tournament dynamics strongly support this outcome.
Wimbledon 2026 is expected to feature high-stakes matches with top-tier players, increasing the likelihood of extended, five-set encounters. Past tournaments have frequently seen matches surpass 3 hours, particularly in later rounds, driven by physical endurance and strategic play.
A rare scenario where early rounds feature quick upsets or retirements could limit match durations. Additionally, potential rule changes (e.g., faster play formats) or extreme weather conditions disrupting matches might reduce the probability of long-duration games.
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Will the longest match at Wimbledon 2026 be 3+ hours long? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 98.7% while ORYN AI estimates 98.7%.
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