Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Political instability or early election calls
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:45:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Pat McFadden's potential Foreign Secretary role may be influenced by global events and international relations, which are also reflected in markets related to US Presidential Elections, NBA finals, and movie box office performances.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
133d
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed as the next Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Foreign Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Foreign Secretary is appointed, or Yvette Cooper is re-appointed as Foreign Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Foreign Secretary in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Pat McFadden becoming the next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026 is extremely low at 0.90%, suggesting minimal market confidence in this outcome. The market is heavily skewed toward the status quo or Yvette Cooper retaining the role.
Pat McFadden could become Foreign Secretary if significant political shifts occur, such as a Labour leadership change or a major reshuffle in 2025-2026, leveraging his seniority and experience in foreign policy roles. A potential Labour victory in the next general election might also open opportunities for new appointments.
The market heavily favors continuity, with Yvette Cooper likely to retain the role or no new appointment occurring by 2026. Pat McFadden's chances are diminished by his current political positioning and the low probability of a major reshuffle under a stable government.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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