Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Emergence of a high-profile progressive challenger with strong grassroots support
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 11:49:25 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
36%
ORYN Consensus
34%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Primary
correlates · strength 60%
Party
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 32-38
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Colorado Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Colorado Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
Michael Bennet holds a moderate baseline probability (~35.5%) in the 2026 Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary due to his name recognition and senatorial experience, but faces significant competition from progressive and establishment-aligned candidates. The outcome hinges on intra-party dynamics, policy positioning, and voter turnout trends in a state trending leftward.
Bennet’s strong statewide name recognition from his Senate tenure, moderate policy appeal to swing voters, and potential fundraising advantages could consolidate establishment support, positioning him as the frontrunner. A fragmented progressive field may split opposition votes, increasing his chances in a low-turnout primary. His bipartisan reputation could also resonate in a purple state like Colorado.
Progressive challengers (e.g., potential candidates like Joe Salazar or Crisanta Duran) may dominate the primary with aggressive left-wing platforms, siphoning Bennet’s moderate support. Colorado’s Democratic electorate has shifted leftward, favoring candidates with strong progressive credentials, which could marginalize Bennet. Low-name-recognition risks in a crowded field could dilute his standing.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
