This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:34:04 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (3.2%) that Seoul's lowest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 23°C. Historical climate data suggests this is an unusually high temperature for late June, making the outcome unlikely.
A persistent high-pressure system over the Korean Peninsula could drive temperatures above the 20-year average for late June, potentially reaching 23°C due to unseasonable heatwave conditions. Climate change trends may also contribute to warmer-than-normal temperatures.
Late June in Seoul typically records lows between 18-21°C, with extreme heat being rare. A typical monsoon pattern or cooler-than-average conditions could suppress temperatures below 23°C, aligning with historical norms.
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Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.1% while ORYN AI estimates 3.2%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
