This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Key risk: Data revisions by the Hong Kong Observatory after initial publication
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:15:52 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for Hong Kong's lowest temperature on June 27, 2026, currently shows a 1.65% probability of reaching 24°C, based on historical climate data trends. This low probability reflects the rarity of such high minimum temperatures in late June for the region.
A bullish scenario could emerge if unusual weather patterns, such as a strong subtropical ridge or heatwave, persist over southern China in late June 2026. Climate change trends may also marginally increase the likelihood of extreme temperatures, though 24°C would still be exceptionally high for this period.
The bear case is strongly supported by historical data, as Hong Kong's average daily minimum temperature in June is typically around 27-28°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 26°C. Unseasonable cold fronts or monsoon influences could further suppress temperatures, making 24°C highly improbable.
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Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.7% while ORYN AI estimates 1.7%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
