Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground after the resolution date
Calibrated 100% · raw 9595% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:30:11 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
97%
Signal Score
+96.0
Opportunity
94.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r5
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 9595.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts Warsaw's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will not reach 34°C, with a current probability of 1.05%. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is highly likely.
A bullish outcome would require unprecedented heatwave conditions in Warsaw during late June, with temperatures exceeding 34°C. This could occur due to an extreme weather anomaly or prolonged high-pressure system, but is statistically rare based on historical records.
The bear case aligns with historical climatology, where Warsaw's late June temperatures rarely exceed 34°C. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides reliable data, and revisions are unlikely to alter the final recorded temperature significantly.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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