Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_risks
Calibrated 100% · raw 160% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 12:54:58 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
20%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
-1.6
Opportunity
1.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Unrelated to NBA season outcomes
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correlated market
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Unrelated to US Presidential Elections
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -160.0¢
Entry: 17-23
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low 19.6% probability that Taipei's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 32°C. Historical data and seasonal trends indicate this is an unlikely outcome.
A heatwave or unusual weather pattern could push temperatures to 32°C, especially if Taipei experiences a prolonged period of high-pressure systems or tropical moisture. Climate change may also increase the likelihood of extreme heat events.
Taipei's typical June temperatures rarely exceed 32°C, with historical averages suggesting a high of around 30-31°C. Overcast skies, rainfall, or cooler-than-average conditions would make 32°C unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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