Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after initial publication
Calibrated 100% · raw 175% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 7:15:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.8
Opportunity
1.7
Graph Relationships
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Weather Correlation: Seoul temperature on June 30 may be related to broader Asian climate patterns, but no direct correlation to listed events
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correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,216,921
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 175.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a very low probability (0.30%) that Seoul's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 22°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides precise daily temperature records, ensuring high data reliability.
A bullish scenario could emerge if unexpected heatwaves or unusual weather patterns (e.g., high-pressure systems) push temperatures to 22°C. Historical outliers or early-season warming trends may also support this outcome.
The bear case reflects Seoul's typical June climate, where average highs hover around 26-28°C, making 22°C unusually cool for the date. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or monsoon patterns could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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