This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:07:20 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-3.9
Opportunity
3.3
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market implies a low probability (15.85%) that Seattle's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will fall within the 62-63°F range. Historical and climatological trends suggest this outcome is unlikely given typical June temperatures for the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected cold front or marine layer suppresses daytime heating, pushing peak temperatures into the lower range. Unusual cloud cover or precipitation events might also contribute to this outcome.
The bear case reflects standard June climatology for Seattle, where highs typically range between 70-75°F. Persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm air advection would likely push temperatures well above the target range.
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Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 15.9% while ORYN AI estimates 12%.
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