Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 385% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:07:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-3.9
Opportunity
3.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Nikki Haley's 2028 Republican presidential nomination is unrelated to Seattle's temperature
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The Golden State Warriors' performance in the 2022-2023 NBA season is independent of Seattle's temperature
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Weather in Seattle does not directly impact the 2024 US Presidential Election
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -385.0¢
Entry: 13-19
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market implies a low probability (15.85%) that Seattle's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will fall within the 62-63°F range. Historical and climatological trends suggest this outcome is unlikely given typical June temperatures for the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected cold front or marine layer suppresses daytime heating, pushing peak temperatures into the lower range. Unusual cloud cover or precipitation events might also contribute to this outcome.
The bear case reflects standard June climatology for Seattle, where highs typically range between 70-75°F. Persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm air advection would likely push temperatures well above the target range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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