This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions (post-resolution cutoff)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 5:35:59 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
24%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market suggests a low probability (24%) that the highest temperature in São Paulo on June 26, 2026, will reach 21°C. Historical June temperature data for São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport indicates this is an unlikely outcome given typical seasonal patterns.
A bullish scenario could involve an unusual weather pattern, such as a strong warm air advection from northern Brazil or a prolonged heatwave, pushing temperatures above the historical June average. Late-season El Niño effects or localized urban heat island intensification could also contribute.
A bearish outcome is more plausible given São Paulo's June climate norms, where average highs are typically around 19-20°C. Persistent cloud cover, cold fronts from the south, or unseasonable rainfall could suppress temperatures below 21°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 24% while ORYN AI estimates 24%.
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