Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision uncertainty
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:15:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,311,443
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
9h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (10.50%) that the highest temperature in San Francisco on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 68-69°F range. Historical climate data suggests this range is uncommon for late June in the region.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heat dome or Santa Ana winds, pushes temperatures into the 68-69°F range. Alternatively, a revision to historical records by Wunderground could adjust past data to fit this range.
The bear case is stronger given San Francisco's typical late June climate, where highs rarely exceed 70°F. Persistent marine layer influence or unexpected cooling trends would likely keep temperatures below or above this narrow range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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