Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data measurement errors or revisions from Wunderground
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:37 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weather correlation: European heatwaves, Italian climate trends
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to entertainment: The Hunger Games movie grossing
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Unrelated to sports: Golden State Warriors NBA finals
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to US politics: 2024 US Presidential Election, 2028 US Presidential Election, Nikki Haley nomination
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Milan's highest temperature reaching 43°C on June 29, 2026, is extremely low at 0.65%, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides precise whole-degree Celsius measurements, ensuring limited ambiguity in verification.
An extreme heatwave event could push temperatures to 43°C, driven by unusual atmospheric conditions (e.g., strong high-pressure systems, Saharan air intrusions, or climate anomalies). Such events, while rare, have occurred in Italy historically (e.g., 2022 European heatwave).
Historical data and climate norms suggest Milan's typical June highs range between 25-30°C, with 43°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average conditions would make this outcome highly improbable.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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