Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_risk
AI updated 6/28/2026, 4:00:17 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
51%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,149,880
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 48-54
—
Resolution
17h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a near-even probability (51%) that Madrid's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 36°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest moderate confidence in this outcome, though variability remains due to meteorological uncertainties.
Madrid's typical late-June temperatures often exceed 35°C, with heatwaves pushing daily highs to 36°C or higher. Climate trends indicate increasing frequency of extreme heat events, supporting a higher likelihood of this temperature being met or exceeded.
Unseasonable weather patterns, such as late cold fronts or persistent cloud cover, could suppress temperatures below 36°C. Historical data shows occasional deviations, with some years recording lower peaks despite seasonal averages.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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