This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Early-season heatwave underestimation in climate models
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:30:13 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a low 5.25% probability that Madrid's highest temperature on June 27, 2026 will reach 37°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely but not impossible.
Madrid could hit 37°C on June 27, 2026 due to an extreme heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure system over Iberia, combined with dry winds from North Africa (Sirocco) and delayed seasonal cooling. Climate change may increase the likelihood of such anomalies.
The probability remains low as Madrid's average high for late June is around 30-32°C, with 37°C occurring in only ~5% of years historically. Persistent Atlantic low-pressure systems or maritime air masses could suppress temperatures below 37°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 5.3% while ORYN AI estimates 5.3%.
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