Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_delays
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:00:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
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r1: Uncertainty in temperature prediction is similar to uncertainty in high-stakes political events; r2: Both 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27?' and 'Will the highest revenue movie of 2026 be The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping?' require precise and accurate predictions; r3: The theme of 'Will [Team/Person] win the [Event]' is present in multiple markets, including the Golden State Warriors and US Presidential Election; r4: The theme of 'Will [Person] win the [Event]' is present in multiple markets, including Ro Khanna and Nikki Haley; r5: The theme of 'Will [Movie] be the top grossing movie of [Year]' is present in multiple markets, including The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping; r6: The theme of 'Will [Team] win the [Event]' is present in multiple markets, including the Golden State Warriors; r7: The theme of 'Will [Person] win the [Event]' is present in multiple markets, including the 2024 US Presidential Election; r8: The theme of 'Will [Event] happen on [Date]' is present in multiple markets, including June 27; r9: The theme of 'Will [Movie] be the top grossing movie of [Year]' is present in multiple markets, including 2026; r10: The theme of 'Will [Team] win the [Event]' is present in multiple markets, including the 2022-2023 NBA season
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market probability of 0.45% for Hong Kong's highest temperature reaching 28°C on June 27, 2026, is exceptionally low, indicating near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside this threshold. Historical June temperature data for Hong Kong suggests this outcome is highly improbable.
A sudden and extreme heatwave could push temperatures to 28°C, driven by unusual atmospheric conditions such as a strong subtropical ridge or prolonged high-pressure systems. Unseasonable weather patterns or climate anomalies might also contribute to such an outcome.
Hong Kong's historical June climate data shows average maximum temperatures around 30-32°C, with 28°C being a common lower threshold. The likelihood of the highest temperature *exactly* hitting 28°C is minimal, as temperatures typically fluctuate above or below this range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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