Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions altering final resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:37:04 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
36%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
2.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r4
correlates · strength 60%
r5
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -350.0¢
Entry: 32-38
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 35.50% probability that Chicago's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will fall between 68-69°F. Historical climate data suggests this range is plausible but not the most likely outcome for late June in Chicago.
A bullish scenario could emerge if a warm air mass settles over the Midwest, leading to unseasonably high temperatures. Persistent high-pressure systems or early-season heatwaves could push daily highs into the upper range of the 68-69°F bracket.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Chicago's historical late-June climate norms. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress highs below the 68-69°F range, favoring lower temperature brackets.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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