This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions altering final resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 3:37:04 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
36%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
-3.5
Opportunity
2.6
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a 35.50% probability that Chicago's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, will fall between 68-69°F. Historical climate data suggests this range is plausible but not the most likely outcome for late June in Chicago.
A bullish scenario could emerge if a warm air mass settles over the Midwest, leading to unseasonably high temperatures. Persistent high-pressure systems or early-season heatwaves could push daily highs into the upper range of the 68-69°F bracket.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Chicago's historical late-June climate norms. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress highs below the 68-69°F range, favoring lower temperature brackets.
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Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 35.5% while ORYN AI estimates 32%.
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