Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable extreme weather events
Calibrated 100% · raw 245% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 9:15:26 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
2.3
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,488,794
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 245.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates an extremely low probability (0.55%) that Beijing's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical climate patterns and seasonal norms for the region. The resolution source (Wunderground) provides precise temperature data, but the market's low probability suggests skepticism about such a high temperature occurring on that specific date.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unexpected heatwave or extreme weather event raises temperatures significantly above historical averages. Unseasonably high pressure systems or unusual atmospheric conditions might push the mercury to 32°C, though this would be atypical for late June in Beijing.
The bearish case is supported by Beijing's historical climate data, where late June temperatures rarely exceed 32°C. Seasonal norms and regional weather patterns suggest a low likelihood of such extreme heat, with typical highs ranging between 28-31°C. Persistent cloud cover or monsoon influences could further suppress temperatures.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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