This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions by Wunderground post-resolution
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:15:30 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
19%
ORYN Consensus
18%
Signal Score
-1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assesses a 19% probability that Beijing's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 36°C based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. The low probability reflects the rarity of such extreme temperatures in late June for the region.
A persistent high-pressure system, coupled with urban heat island effects and potential climate anomalies, could drive temperatures to 36°C. Earlier heatwaves in June (e.g., 2023's 41°C) suggest increasing frequency of extreme heat events.
Historical data indicates Beijing's late June highs typically range between 30-34°C, with 36°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon influences, or cooler-than-average conditions would suppress temperatures below this threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 19% while ORYN AI estimates 18%.
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