Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Measurement errors or calibration issues at Esenboğa Intl Airport Station
Calibrated 100% · raw 120% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:45:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.2
Opportunity
1.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to US Politics: The Ankara temperature is independent of the US presidential elections and nominations.
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Unrelated to Entertainment: The Ankara temperature has no correlation with movie box office performance or sports outcomes.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
962,552
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 120.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market has a very low probability (0.80%) of Ankara's highest temperature on June 29, 2026 reaching exactly 27°C. Historical data and climate trends suggest this outcome is unlikely due to typical June temperatures in the region.
A persistent high-pressure system or unusual heatwave could push temperatures to 27°C, especially if regional climate patterns deviate from historical norms. Unseasonably warm air masses from the Middle East or Mediterranean could contribute to such an outcome.
June temperatures in Ankara typically range between 20-25°C, with 27°C being above the 90th percentile. Standard climatology and seasonal forecasts favor lower probabilities for this extreme threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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