Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data unavailability from Farside Investors (resolves 50-50)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 4:00:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Positively correlated with global economic uncertainty, such as Strait of Hormuz disruptions, which may boost Bitcoin demand as a safe-haven asset
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Unrelated to Putin's presidency or Manifold.love user growth, as these markets are not directly influenced by Bitcoin ETF flows
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,802,641
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Monday, June 29, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an extremely low probability (0.05%) of positive Bitcoin ETF flows on June 29, 2026, with resolution hinging on Farside Investors' finalized data. The near-zero probability suggests strong market skepticism toward inflows for that specific date.
Positive flows could occur if institutional demand surges unexpectedly due to macroeconomic factors (e.g., Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin halving effects) or ETF provider promotions. A sudden shift in risk appetite among large investors may drive inflows despite the low baseline probability.
Negative flows are likely if institutional demand remains tepid, macro conditions deteriorate (e.g., recession fears, regulatory headwinds), or ETF providers experience outflows due to profit-taking or market sentiment shifts. The 0.05% probability reflects dominant bearish expectations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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