Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Historical underperformance of CONCACAF in World Cups (only 2 titles in 22 tournaments)
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:48:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Unrelated Events
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-7
—
Resolution
Open-ended
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
14 points
This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 3.60% probability to North America (CONCACAF) winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting historical dominance by other continents and the tournament's expanded format. This low probability aligns with past World Cup outcomes where Europe and South America have consistently produced the majority of champions.
CONCACAF could win if a host nation (USA, Canada, or Mexico) leverages home advantage, youth development programs, and increased investment in soccer infrastructure. A strong performance by CONCACAF teams in the 2024 Copa América and 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup could also boost confidence in their 2026 prospects.
Historical data shows only 3 of the last 22 World Cup winners have been from CONCACAF (USA 1994 host bid, no tournament; Mexico 1970 and 1986 hosts, no tournament). The expanded 48-team format may dilute quality, and Europe/South America remain soccer powerhouses with superior infrastructure and talent pools.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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