Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Event cancellation or rescheduling before resolution deadline
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:49:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Faith & Freedom Coalition's 2026 Policy Conference on June 26, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET. (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks during the Faith & Freedom Coalition's 2026 Policy Conference scheduled for June 26, 2026. (See: https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by June 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event from the White House, among others. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 0.05% probability to Donald Trump saying the word 'Mutilation' during the Faith & Freedom Coalition's 2026 Policy Conference on June 26, 2026. The event's occurrence is a prerequisite for resolution, with a fallback mechanism if canceled.
Trump may use provocative rhetoric, including the term 'Mutilation,' to energize the Faith & Freedom Coalition's conservative base, particularly on contentious issues like transgender rights or abortion policies. Historical precedent shows Trump frequently employs strong, attention-grabbing language in such settings.
Trump may avoid using the term 'Mutilation' to maintain a more measured tone, especially given the formal and policy-focused nature of the Faith & Freedom Coalition conference. The term could be seen as overly inflammatory or politically risky in this context.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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