Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential inaccuracies in the Xtracker tool leading to misresolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 9:00:29 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
40%
ORYN Consensus
42%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,282,819
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 36-43
—
Resolution
4d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve according to the number of times Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa), posts on X between June 26, 12:00 PM ET and July 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently prices a 41.5% probability that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will post between 60-79 times on X (formerly Twitter) during the specified week in June-July 2026. Historical posting patterns suggest this range is plausible but not guaranteed, with potential volatility driven by geopolitical developments.
Zelenskyy may increase posting frequency due to escalating conflict requiring sustained public communication, upcoming diplomatic negotiations demanding visibility, or strategic moves to counter misinformation. His team might also leverage X for fundraising or mobilization efforts during critical periods.
A potential decrease in posting could result from Zelenskyy prioritizing in-person diplomacy or domestic crisis management, platform policy changes reducing engagement incentives, or technical issues with X's tracking mechanisms. Seasonal patterns (e.g., summer lulls) might also reduce activity.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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