Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Netflix's algorithmic bias toward established franchises
Calibrated 100% · raw 1650% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:32:02 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
20%
Signal Score
+16.5
Opportunity
14.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Uninfluenced by personal goals
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,453,749
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1650.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
3d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (19.55%) that 'Worst Neighbor Ever' will rank as the top global Netflix show for the week ending July 6, 2026. Given its niche appeal and limited global reach, this prediction aligns with historical trends for non-blockbuster titles.
'Worst Neighbor Ever' could surpass expectations due to viral social media trends, strong word-of-mouth promotion, or a surge in international viewership from non-English markets despite being an English-only category. A surprise marketing push or cultural phenomenon might drive its ranking.
The show's limited global appeal, lack of mainstream promotion, or competition from established Netflix hits (e.g., 'Stranger Things,' 'The Crown') likely prevents it from topping the chart. Its English-only constraint further reduces its potential audience.
Trade links and live readiness
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