Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Ivory Coast’s historical underperformance in World Cups
AI updated 7/2/2026, 9:47:55 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
26 points
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Ivory Coast winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup is an extremely low-probability event with a market probability of 0.25%. Historically, Ivory Coast has struggled in World Cup knockout stages, and their recent performances (2022 World Cup: group stage exit) do not suggest dominance in the tournament.
Ivory Coast could win if they experience a generational talent breakthrough (e.g., emerging stars like Simon Adingra or Jean-Philippe Krasso mature into world-class players) and benefit from favorable draws (avoiding top-tier teams like Brazil, France, or Argentina until late stages). A strong African confederation performance (e.g., 3-4 African teams in the knockout rounds) could also improve their odds.
Ivory Coast’s path to victory is hindered by structural weaknesses: lack of recent World Cup success, inconsistent squad depth, and vulnerability to top-ranked teams. FIFA’s expanded 48-team format (2026) increases competition, making it statistically harder for lower-ranked teams like Ivory Coast to progress beyond the group stage.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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