Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Permanent cancellation or postponement of the 2026 World Cup
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:16:09 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,137,037
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
18d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Egypt winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup is extremely low at 0.15%, reflecting Egypt's historical performance and current FIFA rankings. The market is highly skewed toward 'No' due to structural and competitive disadvantages.
Egypt could win the World Cup if they experience a miraculous rise in form, benefit from favorable draws, and overcome historical underperformance in major tournaments. A breakthrough in youth development or managerial innovation might also shift the odds.
Egypt's long-standing struggles in World Cup qualifiers and knockout stages, combined with the tournament's expanded format (48 teams), make victory highly improbable. Their current FIFA ranking (60th as of mid-2024) and lack of recent success further diminish chances.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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