Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Undetected covert enrichment or weaponization efforts
AI updated 6/29/2026, 10:31:35 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
7%
ORYN Consensus
7%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,467,968
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 4-10
—
Resolution
184d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a low 6.6% probability to Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon by 2027, reflecting skepticism due to technical, political, and verification hurdles. Resolution hinges on credible confirmation from international agencies or official Iranian sources.
Iran could achieve nuclear weapon capability by 2027 if enrichment levels surpass 90%, weaponization programs accelerate undetected, or negotiations collapse, prompting Tehran to abandon safeguards. Regional tensions or covert assistance from allies may also expedite progress.
Technical delays in weaponization, sustained international inspections, or diplomatic breakthroughs could prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon by 2027. Economic constraints or internal regime instability may further hinder progress.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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