Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Third-party or independent challenges splitting the Democratic vote
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:00:18 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
9
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Wesley Bell as the Democratic nominee for MO-01 is highly competitive at 49%, indicating a near-even split in expectations. The outcome hinges on Bell's ability to consolidate Democratic support and outperform primary rivals.
Wesley Bell's progressive credentials and name recognition as a St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney could galvanize urban and suburban Democratic voters in MO-01. His potential to attract moderate and Black voters, alongside strong grassroots organizing, may secure the nomination.
Bell faces competition from established Democratic figures in MO-01 who may have deeper party ties or fundraising networks. If his progressive platform alienates centrist voters or if internal party dynamics favor a more moderate candidate, his nomination odds could decline.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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