Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictability of Trump's social media behavior
Calibrated 100% · raw 450% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:30:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
56%
ORYN Consensus
61%
Signal Score
+4.5
Opportunity
3.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 450.0¢
Entry: 53-60
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between June 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 61% probability that Donald Trump will use the phrase 'Radical Left Lunatic' in a qualifying video posted on his social media between June 29 and July 5, 2026. Historical usage patterns and recent rhetoric suggest a moderate likelihood of occurrence.
Trump has frequently employed the phrase in past communications, particularly in response to political opponents or media criticism, and may continue this pattern during the specified week. The 2024 election cycle saw elevated usage of such terminology, indicating a potential recurrence.
The phrase may fall out of favor in Trump's rhetoric, especially if his campaign shifts focus to more policy-oriented messaging. Recent legal and political developments could reduce his reliance on inflammatory language, lowering the probability of use.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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