Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Subjective interpretation of 'mention'
Calibrated 100% · raw 3400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 8:47:34 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
10%
Signal Score
-34.0
Opportunity
25.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3400.0¢
Entry: 41-47
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
6
Price history
90 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 50% probability that Donald Trump will verbally mention the phrase 'Gulf of Trump' during July 2026. The outcome hinges on spontaneous verbal usage, excluding written statements or pre-recorded videos.
Trump may reference the term during a campaign speech, rally, or interview to highlight his foreign policy legacy, particularly if tensions in the Gulf region escalate or if he seeks to emphasize his administration's naval achievements. His unpredictable rhetoric could increase the likelihood of such a verbal slip.
The absence of the phrase may stem from Trump avoiding controversial or self-aggrandizing terminology, focusing instead on broader geopolitical themes. Additionally, his team might deliberately suppress such references to prevent mockery or criticism.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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