Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Overestimation of spontaneous verbal mentions due to reliance on public recordings
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:30:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
16%
ORYN Consensus
16%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,451
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 12-18
—
Resolution
9h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between June 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assessing whether Donald Trump will verbally mention 'Antifa' between June 23-28, 2026, currently prices a 15.5% probability, indicating low likelihood. The resolution criteria are highly specific, limiting the scope to only in-person verbal mentions captured in public recordings.
Trump may reference 'Antifa' during a rally or interview, given his historical rhetoric on the topic and potential political incentives to energize his base. Media amplification of protests or counter-protests could provide a catalyst for such a mention. The brevity of the window (5 days) also slightly increases the odds of a spontaneous verbal reference.
Trump has not mentioned 'Antifa' in public settings for extended periods, and his team may avoid the term to prevent legal or reputational risks. The reliance on verbal-only mentions (excluding written posts) further reduces the probability, as written communications are his primary medium. External events may not align with his agenda to necessitate such a reference.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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