Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Trump's unpredictable posting schedule or topics
Calibrated 100% · raw 3850% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:15:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
49%
Signal Score
+38.5
Opportunity
27.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 3850.0¢
Entry: 8-14
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
51 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between June 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects near-even odds (49%) on whether Donald Trump will post the exact term 'Wall Street' on Truth Social between June 23-28, 2026. The outcome hinges on Trump's social media behavior and the term's relevance to current events during the specified window.
Trump may post 'Wall Street' if economic or financial themes dominate U.S. news cycles, particularly if he seeks to comment on stock market performance, regulatory policies, or corporate narratives. His engagement with financial topics has been sporadic but not unprecedented, especially during periods of market volatility or populist economic rhetoric.
The term 'Wall Street' may not appear due to Trump's avoidance of precise phrasing, preference for alternative terminology (e.g., 'the Radical Left,' 'the Deep State'), or lack of direct engagement with financial markets during the week. Historical patterns show Trump often uses broader or more inflammatory language rather than specific economic terms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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