In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Key risk: SD's extremism allegations damaging coalition cohesion
AI updated 6/27/2026, 8:00:35 AM
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
13%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The Tidö parties face significant challenges in securing a majority in the 2026 Swedish elections, with current market probability at 12.5%. The coalition's survival depends on maintaining voter support amid shifting political dynamics and economic pressures.
The Tidö coalition could secure a majority by leveraging strong immigration policies, economic recovery messaging, and urban-rural divides. A fragmented opposition and SD's growing influence may consolidate right-wing voters, while M's centrist appeal could attract undecided moderates.
Declining popularity for SD due to radical image, internal disputes within the coalition, or a resurgent center-left bloc could prevent the Tidö parties from reaching 175 seats. Economic downturns or scandals may erode voter confidence in the government's stability.
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Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 11.5% while ORYN AI estimates 12.5%.
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