Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Regulatory changes to challenge system before 2026 season
Calibrated 100% · raw 2000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:22:18 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| fincept | 1 | — | Global only |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
30%
Signal Score
-20.0
Opportunity
11.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
personal achievement
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,453,749
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
99d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Rays' reputation for analytical innovation gives them a plausible edge in MLB's ABS challenge system, but the market's 50% probability for a single team out of 30 appears unusually high. Small sample sizes and regression to the mean create significant uncertainty around sustaining dominance.
Tampa Bay consistently leverages advanced analytics to identify challenge opportunities, historically achieving high overturn rates. Their organizational focus on marginal gains extends to in-game tactics, potentially maximizing success rate through disciplined challenges.
Challenge success rates are noisy year-to-year, and other data-driven teams (e.g., Dodgers, Astros) can replicate or exceed the Rays' approach. A limited number of challenges per season amplifies variance, and rule changes or umpire adjustments could erode any edge.
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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